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Uncertainty-sensitive heterogeneous information fusion : assessing threat with soft, uncertain, and conflicting evidence

Author

Davis, Paul K., 1943- author.

Title

Uncertainty-sensitive heterogeneous information fusion : assessing threat with soft, uncertain, and conflicting evidence / Paul K. Davis, Walter L. Perry, John S. Hollywood, David Manheim.

Format

Book

Published

Santa Monica, Calif. : Rand Corporation, [2016] ©2016

Description

xxv, 142 pages : illustrations (some color) ; 23 cm

Other contributors

Perry, Walt L., author. Hollywood, John S., 1973- author. Manheim, David, author. Rand Corporation. National Security Research Division, organizer, issuing body. Rand Corporation, issuing body. United States. Office of Naval Research, sponsoring body.

Notes

"RR-1200-NAVY"--Back cover. "RAND National Security Research Division"--Title page. "Prepared for the Office of Naval Research"--Title page. Includes bibliographical references (pages 135-142).

Contents

• Introduction
• Concepts, Methods, and a Research Platform
• Creating Synthetic Data : Vignettes for Testing
• Simple and Bayesian Fusion Methods
• The Maximum Entrophy / Minimum Penalty Fusion Method
• Illustrative Analysis
• Conclusions and Recommendations.

Summary

"An element of thwarting terrorist attacks is observing suspicious individuals over time with such diverse means as scanners and other devices, travel records, behavioral observations, and intelligence sources. Such observations provide data that are often both complex and "oft" -- i.e., qualitative, subjective, fuzzy, or ambiguous -- and also contradictory or even deceptive. Analysts face the challenge of heterogeneous information fusion -- that is, combining such data to form a realistic assessment of threat. This report presents research on various heterogeneous information fusion methods and describes a research prototype system for fusing uncertainty-sensitive heterogeneous information. The context is counterterrorism, for both military and civilian applications, but the ideas are also applicable in intelligence and law enforcement."--Back cover.

Subject headings

Terrorism--Prevention--Statistical methods. Criminal behavior, Prediction of--Statistical methods. Criminal profilers--Statistical methods. Crime forecasting--Statistical methods. Risk assessment--Statistical methods. Bayesian field theory--Statistical methods.

ISBN

9780833092779 paperback 0833092774 paperback